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Exponential growth, trendwatching
What is a “growth hockey stick” — and why should you care about it?
What should you invest in today — not just with money, but with your own skin
A “hockey stick” is about the moment when growth stops being steady
In the startup world, people often talk about hockey stick growth. For a long time, it feels like nothing is happening: the graph moves almost in a straight line, everything grows slowly and steadily. And then suddenly, there’s a sharp takeoff — and that straight line turns into the blade of a hockey stick.
In business, this means one simple thing: exponential growth begins.
Not +5% per month, but jumps of tens or even hundreds of percent. When active users, revenue, or engagement suddenly behave like a rocket — not like a train running on schedule.
In business, this means one simple thing: exponential growth begins.
Not +5% per month, but jumps of tens or even hundreds of percent. When active users, revenue, or engagement suddenly behave like a rocket — not like a train running on schedule.
What does a “growth hockey stick” look like in the real world, not just in presentations?
- Facebook in the mid-2000s: first a narrow audience of universities, then expansion to the broader world — and the user graph suddenly bends upward.
- Zoom in March 2020: a few weeks — and the entire planet is using one app.
- ChatGPT in 2022: one million users in 5 days, one hundred million in two months.
- TikTok в 2018–2020: молодая аудитория, вирусный контент, умные алгоритмы — и рост быстрее, чем у Instagram на пике.
These cases are not just “nice examples from books.”
They are a reminder of one key feature of the hockey stick: for a long time, it feels slow — and then suddenly, it’s “too fast.”
In the past, technologies took decades to reach people — now it happens in just a few years
There was a time when it took 20–50 years for a technology to become the norm.
Electricity, the refrigerator, the washing machine — all of these entered homes slowly, step by step, over decades. On a graph, this looks like a long handle of the hockey stick, followed only later by a gradual rise.
Now compare that to the internet, mobile phones, or microwave ovens.
Five to seven years — and everyone already treats them as standard. We didn’t even have time to notice the moment when a “new thing” became “well, of course, that’s how it should be.”
Electricity, the refrigerator, the washing machine — all of these entered homes slowly, step by step, over decades. On a graph, this looks like a long handle of the hockey stick, followed only later by a gradual rise.
Now compare that to the internet, mobile phones, or microwave ovens.
Five to seven years — and everyone already treats them as standard. We didn’t even have time to notice the moment when a “new thing” became “well, of course, that’s how it should be.”
The exponential curve has become shorter and steeper — but we’re still thinking the old way
Exponential growth — that “blade of the hockey stick” — has become shorter and sharper.
If раньше everything unfolded slowly, like an ocean liner, now it’s more like a rocket.
ChatGPT in a matter of days, Zoom in a matter of weeks — these are no longer exceptions, but the new pace.
The paradox is that visually we’re used to these curves, but internally — not really. We still think: “we’ll have time to adapt, there’s plenty of time.” Meanwhile, the technology is already alive in every second smartphone.
If you’re building something and see it starting to take off — this is not the moment to say “let’s watch it for another year.”
This is the moment to go all-in on your hypotheses. Either you catch the hockey stick — or you’ll be looking at someone else’s growth in hindsight.
Delay is a luxury of the past century.
If раньше everything unfolded slowly, like an ocean liner, now it’s more like a rocket.
ChatGPT in a matter of days, Zoom in a matter of weeks — these are no longer exceptions, but the new pace.
The paradox is that visually we’re used to these curves, but internally — not really. We still think: “we’ll have time to adapt, there’s plenty of time.” Meanwhile, the technology is already alive in every second smartphone.
If you’re building something and see it starting to take off — this is not the moment to say “let’s watch it for another year.”
This is the moment to go all-in on your hypotheses. Either you catch the hockey stick — or you’ll be looking at someone else’s growth in hindsight.
Delay is a luxury of the past century.
An example of how exponential growth changes over time
An example of how exponential growth unfolds over time
If you look ahead, it gets more interesting.
Where are the next curves that are still “crawling along the bottom” but are already loaded for takeoff?
Here are the areas where, in my view, the handle of the hockey stick is already forming — and the sharp bend is still ahead:
Where are the next curves that are still “crawling along the bottom” but are already loaded for takeoff?
Here are the areas where, in my view, the handle of the hockey stick is already forming — and the sharp bend is still ahead:
AI assistants embedded into workflows, not just used for entertainment
Not “chatting with ChatGPT,” but assistants embedded into workflows:
they write reports, compile summaries, draft emails, schedule meetings, review code.
At some point, this will become the norm — just like office software or CRM once did.
And the gap between those who’ve learned to use it and those who “refuse to touch it” will be like the difference between a typewriter and a laptop.
they write reports, compile summaries, draft emails, schedule meetings, review code.
At some point, this will become the norm — just like office software or CRM once did.
And the gap between those who’ve learned to use it and those who “refuse to touch it” will be like the difference between a typewriter and a laptop.
Personalized medicine: treatment tailored to the individual
Your DNA, your lifestyle, your habits and nutrition — and based on that, your treatment, vitamins, routines, and recommendations are tailored specifically to you.
Right now, it looks like an expensive service for a few — and a bit like science fiction.
But the trend is already in motion: everything that can be well personalized eventually becomes mass-market (and affordable) much faster than it seems at the beginning.
Right now, it looks like an expensive service for a few — and a bit like science fiction.
But the trend is already in motion: everything that can be well personalized eventually becomes mass-market (and affordable) much faster than it seems at the beginning.
Smart homes and AI home managers that work without being annoying
Lighting, doors, climate, security, the fridge, the washing machine — everything runs “on its own,” with minimal human involvement.
Right now, it often feels clunky, noisy, and sometimes downright annoying (yes, voice assistants can really make you want to turn them off).
But if you look a bit ahead, it becomes clear: sooner or later, this will fade into the background.
And the only thought will be: “How did I live without a home that takes care of the basics while I focus on more important things?”
Right now, it often feels clunky, noisy, and sometimes downright annoying (yes, voice assistants can really make you want to turn them off).
But if you look a bit ahead, it becomes clear: sooner or later, this will fade into the background.
And the only thought will be: “How did I live without a home that takes care of the basics while I focus on more important things?”
A new era of learning: an AI tutor instead of scheduled group classes
A personal digital mentor who analyzes your specific mistakes, gives 1:1 feedback, adapts the pace to you, and is available anytime.
Not a “course for a hundred people,” but learning as a continuous flow — at 17, 37, or 57.
Not necessarily for a diploma, but for real-world tasks.
Right now, it looks like a set of fragmented solutions, but the direction is clear: education is becoming personal and continuous.
Not a “course for a hundred people,” but learning as a continuous flow — at 17, 37, or 57.
Not necessarily for a diploma, but for real-world tasks.
Right now, it looks like a set of fragmented solutions, but the direction is clear: education is becoming personal and continuous.
Decentralized finance and digital assets as a new infrastructure
DeFi is an attempt to learn how to be your own banker — without a traditional bank and its infrastructure.
Not crypto for trading, but tokenized assets, smart contracts, and digital identity.
Right now, it looks like a strange forest with a maze of unclear paths.
But history suggests: those who build the first proper roads end up owning the traffic.
Not crypto for trading, but tokenized assets, smart contracts, and digital identity.
Right now, it looks like a strange forest with a maze of unclear paths.
But history suggests: those who build the first proper roads end up owning the traffic.
How not to miss your hockey stick — and why you need to enter it early
Each of these areas is a hockey stick in its early stage.
Right now, it’s just the handle: imperfect, sometimes inconvenient, sometimes “too early.”
But this is exactly where you can get in before the curve.
Before that moment when everyone says “wow” and starts explaining that “it was obvious all along.”
How do you get there?
Look at what feels uncomfortable, unstable, and strange.
Where interfaces are still rough, processes break, and people have to think instead of just clicking.
That’s where growth most often begins — the kind that later looks like a perfect “hockey stick” on a chart.
Right now, it’s just the handle: imperfect, sometimes inconvenient, sometimes “too early.”
But this is exactly where you can get in before the curve.
Before that moment when everyone says “wow” and starts explaining that “it was obvious all along.”
How do you get there?
Look at what feels uncomfortable, unstable, and strange.
Where interfaces are still rough, processes break, and people have to think instead of just clicking.
That’s where growth most often begins — the kind that later looks like a perfect “hockey stick” on a chart.
Leonid Bugaev
is an expert in business communications, a corporate trainer, speaker, and conference moderator. He is the author of the books “Mobile Marketing”, “Mobile Networking” and "People Like Me: 99 Rules for Building Connections That Actually Matter."
Follow Leonid on Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube so you don’t miss new publications. Also take a look at his business training programs on networking, B2B sales and trendwatching, as well as his books and interviews.
Follow Leonid on Telegram, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube so you don’t miss new publications. Also take a look at his business training programs on networking, B2B sales and trendwatching, as well as his books and interviews.
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